Altman Z Score Financial Models

A combination of ratios is sometimes used for a better understanding of a company’s financial status and health. If the DuPont model was expanded for a better understanding of the return on equity, then the Altman Z Score model was developed to understand the company’s health, creditworthiness and the likelihood of its bankruptcy, by considering the effects of assets, profits, and market value. Originally developed in 1968 by professor Edward I. Altman of NYU, the financial model adopted a weighting system combined with a set of five financial ratios to predict a company’s probability of failure.

Original Model Z-Score for Public Manufacturing Companies:

Z-Score = 1.2X1 + 1.4X2 + 3.3X3 + 0.6X4 + 0.999X5

Where,

X1 = Working Capital ÷ Total Assets (Measures the net liquid assets relative to the total assets)

X2 = Retained Earnings ÷ Total Assets (Measures the financial leverage level of a company)

X3 = Earnings before Interest & Taxes ÷ Total Assets (Measures productivity of a company’s total assets)

X4 = Market Value of Equity ÷ Book Value of Total Liabilities (Measures what portion of a company’s assets can decline in value before the liabilities exceed the assets)

X5 = Sales ÷ Total Assets (Measures revenue-generating ability of a company’s assets)

When analysing the Z-Score of a company, the lower the value, the higher the chances for the company to head towards bankruptcy. The rules of interpretation of Z-score are as follows:

Below 1.8 indicates a firm is headed for bankruptcy;
Above 3.0 indicates a firm is unlikely to enter bankruptcy; and
Between 1.8 and 3.0 cannot be predicted and is a grey area.

Additional Models

Dr. Altman created three different Z Score Models. While the original model developed in 1968 was for large companies, in 1983, he expanded by creating two more models - Model “A” Z-Score was developed for use with private manufacturing companies. Model “B” was developed for non-public traded general firms and the service sector.

Model ‘A’ - Z-Score for Private Manufacturing Companies

This model replaces the market value of equity with the book value in X4, compared to the original model.

Z-Score = 0.717X1 + 0.847X2 + 3.107X3 +0.420X4 +0.998X5

Where,

X1 = Working Capital ÷ Total Assets
X2 = Retained Earnings ÷ Total Assets
X3 = Earnings before Interest & Taxes ÷ Total Assets
X4 = Book Value of Equity ÷ Book Value of Total Liabilities
X5 = Sales ÷ Total Assets

The rules of interpretation of Z-score are as follows:

Below 1.23 indicates a firm is headed for bankruptcy;
Above 2.9 indicates a firm is unlikely to enter bankruptcy; and
Between 1.23 and 2.9 cannot be predicted and is a grey area.

Model ‘B’ Z - Score for Private General Companies:

This model analysed the characteristics and accuracy of a model without X5 – sales/total assets.

Z-Score = 6.56X1 + 3.26X2 +6.72X3 +1.05X4

Where,

X1 = Working Capital ÷ Total Assets
X2 = Retained Earnings ÷ Total Assets
X3 = Earnings before Interest & Taxes ÷ Total Assets
X4 = Book Value of Equity ÷ Book Value of Total Liabilities

The rules of interpretation of Z-score are as follows:

Below 1.10 indicates a firm is headed for bankruptcy;
Above 2.6 indicates a firm is unlikely to enter bankruptcy; and
Between 1.10 and 2.6 cannot be predicted and is a grey area.

PurposeModel

The purpose of the Z Score Model is to measure a company’s financial health and to predict the probability that a company will collapse and go bankrupt within 2 years. It is proven to be very accurate to forecast bankruptcy with studies showing that the model has 75% and 95% reliability of predicting bankruptcy with 1 year and 2 years respectively, across companies.

All the financial ratios highlighted in this section can help the investors in making the necessary computations to understand the health and performance of any company and also, help in peer comparison to provide sufficient information on valuations, thereby resulting in any investment. However, all these computations are based on past information or the trailing twelve-month information, which helps in understanding but not providing any outlook into the future.

For that purpose, a fundamental and technical analysis has to be done, to identify the prospects of investing. Before commencing the section on fundamental analysis, a collation of all these ratios is provided as a ready reckoner. This will be handy during the fundamental analysis and hence, is made available as a quick glance sheet.

Important Financial Ratios at a Glance

Gross Profit Margin = Gross Profit ÷ Net Sales
Net Profit Margin = Net Profit ÷ Net Sales
Return of Assets = Net Profit ÷ Total Average Assets
Return on Net Assets = Net Profit ÷ (Fixed Assets + Net Working Capital)
Return on Capital Employed = EBIT ÷ (Total Assets – Current Liabilities)
Return on Invested Capital = (Net Profit – Dividends) ÷ Total Capital Employed
Return on Equity = Net Profit ÷ Average Shareholder’s Equity
DuPont formula (RoE) = Net Profit Margin * Asset Turnover Ratio * Equity Multiplier
Current Ratio = Current Assets ÷ Current Liabilities
Quick Ratio = Quick Assets ÷ Current Liabilities
Cash Ratio = (Cash + Marketable Securities) ÷ Current Liabilities
Inventory Turnover Ratio = Cost of Goods Sold ÷ Average Inventory for the period
Days inventory Outstanding = 365 Days ÷ Inventory Turnover Ratio
Accounts Receivable Turnover Ratio = Net Credit Sales ÷ Average Accounts Receivable
Days Sales Outstanding = 365 Days ÷ Accounts Receivable Turnover Ratio
Accounts Payable Turnover Ratio = Net Credit Purchases ÷ Average Accounts Payable
Days Payable Outstanding = 365 Days ÷ Accounts Payable Turnover Ratio
Operating Cycle (Days) = Days Inventory Outstanding + Days Sales Outstanding
Cash Conversion Cycle (Days) = Operating Cycle – Days Payable Outstanding
Working Capital Turnover Ratio = Net sales ÷ Average Working Capital
Fixed Asset Turnover Ratio = Net Sales ÷ Total Average Fixed Assets
Total Asset Turnover Ratio = Net Sales ÷ Total Average Assets
Debt Ratio = Total Debt ÷ Total Assets
Equity Ratio = Total Shareholder’s Equity ÷ Total Assets
Equity Multiplier = Total Assets ÷ Shareholder's Equity
Debt to Equity Ratio = Total Debt ÷ Total Shareholder’s Equity
Long term Debt to Capitalization = Long Term Debt ÷ Total Capital
Interest Coverage Ratio = Earnings before Interest and Taxes ÷ Interest Costs
Degree of Operating Leverage = Change in EBIT (%) ÷ Change in Sales (%)
Degree of Financial Leverage = Change in EPS (%) ÷ Change in EBIT (%)
Degree of Combined Leverage = Change in EPS (%) ÷ Change in Sales (%)
Operating Cash Flow = Operating Income + Depreciation - Taxes ± Change in Working Capital
Free Cash Flow = Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditure
Operating cash flow to Sales Ratio = Cash flow from Operating Activities ÷ Net Sales
Free Cash Flow to Operating Cash Flow Ratio = Free Cash Flows ÷ Operating Cash Flows
Cash Flow Coverage Ratio = Operating Cash Flows ÷ Total Debt
Cash Flow per Share = Operating Cash Flow ÷ Total Shares Outstanding
Cash Flow Liquidity ratio = (Cash & Cash Equivalents + Marketable Securities + Operating Cash Flow) ÷ Total Liabilities
Dividend Payout Ratio = Total Dividends ÷ Net Profit
Cash Flow Return on Investment = Operating Cash Flow ÷ Capital Employed
Cash Return on Gross Investment = Operating After Tax Cash Flow ÷ Gross Investment
Price to Earnings ratio = Current market price of the share ÷ Earnings per share
Price to Sales ratio = Current Market Price of the Share ÷ Net Sales per Share
Price to Book Value ratio = Current Market Price per Share ÷ Book Value per Share
Price to Cash Flow ratio = Current Market Price Per Share ÷ Operating Cash Flow per Share
Price to Earnings to Growth ratio = Price / Earnings ÷ Annual EPS Growth
Dividend Yield (%) = Total Dividend per Share ÷ Current Market Price of the share
Altman Z-Score = 1.2X1 + 1.4X2 + 3.3X3 + 0.6X4 + 0.999X5,
1. X1 = Working Capital ÷ Total Assets;
2. X2 = Retained Earnings ÷ Total Assets;
3. X3 = Earnings before Interest & Taxes ÷ Total Assets;
4. X4 = Market Value of Equity ÷ Book Value of Total Liabilities;
5. X5 = Sales ÷ Total Assets
Enterprise Value = Market Capitalization + Market Value of Debt – Cash and Equivalents

Points of Note

Any ratio should not be considered on a standalone basis, but should be used in conjunction with other ratios for an appropriate understanding.
Parameters related to balance sheet should be considered on an ‘average’ basis – (beginning + ending)/2, to account for the various changes occurring during the course of yearly operations which can affect working capital, assets, liabilities etc.
Industry averages like P.E., RoE’s etc. have to be used for comparing companies in a same sector and not across sectors.
Also, factoring in all the tailwinds and headwinds might not be possible at times and hence, valuation computations might differ from time to time.

With this background, the next sections will work towards detailing the macroeconomic and microeconomic concepts and continuing on, to address the process of fundamental and technical analyses of companies.

Next Chapter

Introduction to Economic Factors

15 Lessons

This chapter explains the external micro and macro economic factors which have direct and indirect consequences on companies.

Introduction to Fundamental Analysis

15 Lessons

Get an understanding of the broad classifications involved in fundamental analysis of stocks. Learn how to analyse industries, companies and financial statements.

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wUmrLVWz commented on December 15th, 2023 at 4:46 PM
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wUmrLVWz commented on December 15th, 2023 at 4:47 PM
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wUmrLVWz commented on December 15th, 2023 at 4:48 PM
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wUmrLVWz commented on December 15th, 2023 at 4:49 PM
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MmzHrrdb commented on December 31st, 2023 at 6:27 PM
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WkYxnTGh commented on January 4th, 2024 at 6:21 AM
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zFPWdwPk commented on January 9th, 2024 at 7:29 PM
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zFPWdwPk commented on January 9th, 2024 at 7:31 PM
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JMgfoull commented on January 31st, 2024 at 5:59 AM
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JMgfoull commented on January 31st, 2024 at 6:41 AM
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JMgfoull commented on January 31st, 2024 at 6:45 AM
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JMgfoull commented on January 31st, 2024 at 6:46 AM
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JMgfoull commented on January 31st, 2024 at 6:47 AM
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mulOMpUR commented on January 31st, 2024 at 6:32 PM
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mulOMpUR commented on January 31st, 2024 at 7:10 PM
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mulOMpUR commented on January 31st, 2024 at 7:17 PM
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mulOMpUR commented on January 31st, 2024 at 7:18 PM
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mulOMpUR commented on January 31st, 2024 at 7:19 PM
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mulOMpUR commented on January 31st, 2024 at 7:21 PM
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mulOMpUR commented on January 31st, 2024 at 7:23 PM
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1'" commented on February 5th, 2024 at 4:32 AM
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kYaZsHyN commented on February 5th, 2024 at 4:34 AM
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kYaZsHyN commented on February 5th, 2024 at 4:42 AM
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kYaZsHyN commented on February 5th, 2024 at 4:43 AM
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1'" commented on February 16th, 2024 at 5:38 PM
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@@TlXji commented on February 16th, 2024 at 5:39 PM
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xZlKFHlU commented on February 16th, 2024 at 5:41 PM
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xZlKFHlU commented on February 16th, 2024 at 5:49 PM
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xZlKFHlU commented on February 16th, 2024 at 5:50 PM
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xZlKFHlU commented on February 16th, 2024 at 5:51 PM
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xZlKFHlU commented on February 16th, 2024 at 5:52 PM
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xZlKFHlU commented on February 16th, 2024 at 5:53 PM
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wUmrLVWz commented on March 8th, 2024 at 11:48 AM
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1'" commented on March 8th, 2024 at 12:41 PM
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wUmrLVWz commented on March 8th, 2024 at 12:43 PM
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wUmrLVWz commented on March 8th, 2024 at 12:45 PM
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wUmrLVWz commented on March 8th, 2024 at 12:45 PM
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wUmrLVWz commented on March 8th, 2024 at 12:46 PM
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wUmrLVWz commented on March 8th, 2024 at 12:47 PM
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wUmrLVWz commented on March 8th, 2024 at 12:48 PM
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JMgfoull commented on March 12th, 2024 at 7:27 PM
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JMgfoull'" commented on March 12th, 2024 at 8:10 PM
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JMgfoull commented on March 12th, 2024 at 8:15 PM
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JMgfoull commented on March 12th, 2024 at 8:29 PM
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JMgfoull commented on March 12th, 2024 at 8:30 PM
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JMgfoull commented on March 12th, 2024 at 8:32 PM
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JMgfoull commented on March 12th, 2024 at 8:34 PM
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JMgfoull commented on March 12th, 2024 at 8:42 PM
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JMgfoull commented on March 12th, 2024 at 8:45 PM
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MmzHrrdb commented on March 13th, 2024 at 9:42 AM
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MmzHrrdb commented on March 13th, 2024 at 9:46 AM
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1'" commented on March 13th, 2024 at 9:52 AM
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MmzHrrdb commented on March 13th, 2024 at 9:54 AM
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MmzHrrdb commented on March 13th, 2024 at 9:55 AM
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MmzHrrdb commented on March 13th, 2024 at 9:56 AM
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MmzHrrdb commented on March 13th, 2024 at 9:57 AM
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MmzHrrdb commented on March 13th, 2024 at 9:58 AM
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MmzHrrdb commented on March 13th, 2024 at 9:59 AM
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MmzHrrdb commented on March 13th, 2024 at 10:00 AM
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1'" commented on March 13th, 2024 at 5:46 PM
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MmzHrrdb commented on March 13th, 2024 at 5:48 PM
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MmzHrrdb commented on March 13th, 2024 at 5:49 PM
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MmzHrrdb commented on March 13th, 2024 at 5:50 PM
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MmzHrrdb commented on March 13th, 2024 at 5:50 PM
@@VYweU

MmzHrrdb commented on March 13th, 2024 at 5:51 PM
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MmzHrrdb commented on March 13th, 2024 at 5:52 PM
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MmzHrrdb commented on March 13th, 2024 at 5:53 PM
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CpjJwWHV commented on March 16th, 2024 at 10:35 AM
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1'" commented on March 16th, 2024 at 11:15 AM
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CpjJwWHV commented on March 16th, 2024 at 11:21 AM
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CpjJwWHV commented on March 16th, 2024 at 11:22 AM
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CpjJwWHV commented on March 16th, 2024 at 11:23 AM
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1. Introduction to Stock Markets

2. Technical Analysis

3. Fundamental Analysis

4. Commodities

5. Currencies

6. Options

7. Options Strategies

8. Futures

9. Intermarket Analysis and Sector Rotation

10. Risk and Money Management

11. Trading Psychology

Altman Z Score Financial Models

Additional Models

Model ‘A’ - Z-Score for Private Manufacturing Companies

Model ‘B’ Z - Score for Private General Companies:

PurposeModel

Important Financial Ratios at a Glance

Points of Note

Next Chapter

Introduction to Economic Factors

Introduction to Fundamental Analysis

Responses