Opened my screen this morning and just stared at it for a solid 2 minutes. Did not even know where to look first 😂
Iran situation over the weekend changed everything overnight. US and Israel launched strikes🚀 , Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei was killed and Iran immediately closed the Strait of Hormuz. Now for context nearly 40% of India's crude imports pass through that route. So crude spiked hard and rupee fell to 91.23 against dollar. These two things happening together is basically the worst combination for Indian markets.
Now look at this Nifty 50 heatmap and it tells the whole story. L&T is the biggest casualty today, down 5.33%. Infrastructure and capital goods always get hit when crude spikes because input costs go up directly. Maruti down 3.20%, auto sector makes sense because fuel costs affect demand sentiment. Reliance down 1.99%, Adani Ports down 2.87%. Even the usually stable ones like HDFC Bank and ICICI are not spared today😭 😭.
Only two greens in the entire Nifty 50. BEL up 2.11% and ONGC up 0.61%. Defence going up during geopolitical tension is obvious. ONGC going up because crude prices spiking directly benefits their revenue. Rest of the market is completely red.
One thing most people are missing today. This is also expiry day because Tuesday is Holi holiday. So you have a massive geopolitical event combined with cherry on top, expiry volatility at the same time. That is why every move is so sharp and fast today. Options premiums are extremely elevated right now.
Not ready to trade after seeing this.
are you guys also sensing something big? 🤔 🤔