Bhai I have been watching this market for a while now and this 2 day recovery is giving me a very familiar feeling honestly
FIIs sold ā¹39,000 crore for weeks, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were completely silent. Then suddenly in 2 days market recovers 430 points, Morgan Stanley upgrades India, FIIs turn buyers and news channels are celebrating ā¹3.48 lakh crore wealth creation. Same people who were selling to us for weeks suddenly became bullish in 2 days, enti jarutondi ikkade ![]()
I went back and checked, this exact pattern played out in 2008, in 2020 Covid crash and now again in 2026. Big players accumulate quietly during the fall when everyone is scared. Recovery starts, positive news flows everywhere, retail confidence comes back and middle class investor who was waiting finally puts money in. That is exactly the exit point for the same people who bought during the crash. The research report telling you to buy right now is written by the same institution that is selling to you, think about that for a second.
Personally I am not convinced this is a genuine recovery yet. Crude is still above $103, Hormuz situation not fully resolved, rupee still at record low ā¹92.39, FII selling has not structurally stopped. None of these fundamentals changed in 2 days, only the sentiment did. That gap between sentiment and fundamentals is exactly where retail investors get trapped every single time ![]()
This current 2 day bull run is giving me exactly that same feeling. Sensex up 1,500 points in 2 sessions, everyone suddenly bullish, FOMO slowly building in retail investors. Before you get carried away, open your portfolio and check how much you actually got back from this recovery. The big question I am asking myself today is simple, is this a genuine trend reversal or is history just repeating itself one more time? What do you think?