Crude Oil prices - What to monitor?

What drives crude oil prices?

  • Crude oil prices react to a variety of geopolitical and economic events
  • World oil prices move together due to arbitrage
  • Crude oil prices are the primary driver of petroleum product prices
  • Economic growth has a strong impact on oil consumption
  • Changes in expectations of economic growth can affect oil prices
  • In OECD countries, price increases have coincided with lower consumption
  • Changes in non-OPEC production can affect oil prices
  • Non-OPEC supply expectations indicate changes in market sentiment concerning oil supply
  • Changes in Saudi Arabia crude oil production can affect oil prices
  • Unplanned supply disruptions tighten world oil markets and push prices higher
  • Inventory builds go hand-in-hand with increases in future oil prices relative to current prices (and vice versa)

**Crude oil prices react to a variety of geopolitical and economic events **

World oil prices move together due to arbitrage

**Crude oil prices are the primary driver of petroleum product prices **

Economic growth has a strong impact on oil consumption

Changes in expectations of economic growth can affect oil prices

In OECD countries, price increases have coincided with lower consumption

**Changes in non-OPEC production can affect oil prices **

**Non-OPEC supply expectations indicate changes in market sentiment concerning oil supply **

Changes in Saudi Arabia crude oil production can affect oil prices

Unplanned supply disruptions tighten world oil markets and push prices higher

**Inventory builds go hand-in-hand with increases in future oil prices relative to current prices (and vice versa) **

Other points to note

**Open interest in crude oil futures grew over the last decade as more participants entered the market **

**Money managers tend to be net long in the U.S. oil futures market **

**Crude oil plays a major role in commodity investment **

Correlations (+ or -) between daily price changes of crude oil futures and other commodities generally rose in recent years

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